2018 Year End Sales and Listing Report
As we reflect on 2018, it was certainly the year of intervention into the real estate market. What we thought was intervention in the previous two years, became a race this year to add as many variables as possible to “create affordability.” Attached are the yearend 2018 Sales and Listings Stats in Greater Vancouver. There were 24,961 home sales in Greater Vancouver in 2018, the lowest annual amount of sales since the year 2000 at 21,940. There were 55,057 new listings in 2018 in Greater Vancouver, the lowest annual amount since 2009. Clearly the real estate market was in a wait and see mode last year. While we saw the detached home market continue to struggle – a trend that extended out to the suburbs, it was the townhome and apartment market that after a quick start, slowed down as the year progressed. Of the total sales in Greater Vancouver, 49 per cent were apartments which was down from 49 per cent in 2017 (up from 46 per cent in 2016 and 42 per cent in 2015), 17 per cent were townhouses similar to 2017 (up from 15 per cent in 2016 and the same at 17 per cent in 2015) and 32 percent were houses which was the same as 2017 (down from 36 per cent in 2016 and 41 per cent in 2015). While the detached housing market had already slowed down in 2017 and continued at these slower sales levels in 2018, the bulk of the drop in overall sales in Greater Vancouver in 2018 came from the townhouse and apartment market. Vancouver’s Westside continues to see 73 per cent of sales being apartments which accounted for a bigger drop overall in the Westside market. Month’s Supply of Inventory has moved up over the last year, finishing with most areas above 6 months, putting them in Buyer’s Market conditions. North Vancouver, Port Moody, Coquitlam and Port Coquitlam averaged 4 to 6 Months Supply of Townhouses and Apartments, fairing better than other areas. Affordability seemed to be the key to driving demand down as the year went on, not surprising given the new Federal Government Stress Test regulations put in place for lending to start 2018. More on that later.
In the Fraser Valley there were 15,586 sales in 2018, which was down 30.2 per cent from the record of 23,974 sales in 2016 and 22,338 sales in 2017. It was the lowest total sales in the Fraser Valley since 2013. Of the total sales, 3,866 were townhouses and 4,296 were apartments. Each of those property types saw a significant decrease in sales compared to 2017. Total townhouse sales dropped 25.6 per cent year over year and total apartments sales dropped 30.5 per cent year over year. In terms of inventory, there were a total of 32,058 new listings processed in the Fraser Valley in 2018. That was the fourth highest total for new inventory in the Board’s history.
Some highlights in market areas during 2017:
- Total sales of Detached Houses in West Vancouver declined from 1074 in 2015 to 834 in 2016 to 509 sales in 2017 and 328 sales in 2018
- Total sales of Detached Houses on Vancouver’s West Side declined from 2,031 in 2015, to 1,591 in 2016 to 1,058 in 2017 and 705 in 2018
- Total sales for Greater Vancouver All Residential declined from 43,155 in 2015, to 40,880 in 2016, to 36,604 in 2017 and 25,051 in 2018. You could almost say the government was late to the party by intervening in 2018.
Just when we thought that government policy was heavy in the real estate market in 2016 and 2017, along came 2018. The year started with the implementation of the B 20 Mortgage Stress Test which now requires any mortgage with a down payment of 20 per cent or more to have the buyer qualify at the contract interest rate plus 2 per cent or the Bank of Canada Posted Rate (currently at 5.34 per cent). This was in place for insured mortgages with a down payment less than 20 per cent already. The effect was to essentially reduce the purchasing power of buyers by 20 per cent. That change had the single biggest impact on the real estate market in 2018, not just in Vancouver but across the country – more so the lower end of the market. Then in February the British Columbia government lead by the NDP introduced a host of measures in their budget aimed at controlling demand. Namely the Speculation and Vacancy Tax (SVT), an increase in School Taxes and the Property Transfer Tax for properties assessed at $3 Million and above and an increase in the Foreign Buyer Tax to 20%. Both the SVT and Foreign Buyer Tax applied to areas in Metro Vancouver, Kelowna, Greater Victoria, Kelowna, Nanaimo and the Fraser Valley – affecting the higher end of the market and vacation properties to a greater extent. Between the Federal and Provincial government, all areas of the real estate market were smothered by policy which decreased demand and more so created psychological uncertainty. Any time new policies are introduced, there is an adjust period as buyers and sellers try to out think the market. And guess what, sales and listings were at their lowest point in years.
What will the real estate market bring in 2019 in Metro Vancouver? Well, what we are seeing here is not much different that other cities not only in Canada but around the world. Both in terms of housing issues but also market conditions. Here’s an example of headlines from articles of late: “San Francisco adds 6,500 residents, 2,200 homes in 2018 – Department of finance says populations still growing despite housing crisis”; “Why are Seattle-area home prices falling now?”; “London Housing Market Suffers Sharp Price Falls”; “New York Has Moved Into a Buyer’s Market, and Is Experiencing A Housing Trend Last Seen in 2009.” Global capital is pulling back, properties are staying on the market longer, and global concerns make for nervous buyers – Trump, Brexit, resistance against foreign capital invading property markets in many global cities, and concern over capital restrictions in China. That’s just a quick summary, and there are many micro economic and political conditions that affect local markets. And of course, markets shift as a normal course, as prices climb too high, demand pulls back. Our real estate market is no different. Of course, there will be many predictions on where our real estate market will go – and as usual predictions of sharp and significant declines will come. With population growing at such high rates, the economy being strong, livability in the City of Vancouver, Metro Vancouver and the province, there are many factors that fly in the face of panic selling or an exodus from our location to bring about significant price declines. Changing markets with a dose of intervention, how could we expect the market to act any differently than it did in 2018.
While active listings at the start of January 2019 were 9,413 (6,733 in 2018, 6,221 in 2017, and 6,312 in 2016), they were actually higher at the start of each year prior to 2016 going back to 2009. And it can be argued that up to 20 per cent of the current listings on market form part of a land assembly and can’t really be counted. What will determine pricing going forward will in large part be based on how many listings come on market. The lack of inventory still being experienced is keeping the market relatively stuck and prices from decreasing any more than they have – and listings aren’t likely to increase dramatically to help ease affordability. After all, while talk of supply solutions from the government were discussed, we’ve yet to see the action. “When you’re thirsty, it’s too late to think about digging a well.” – Anonymous.
Sales and Listings Statistics All Regional for December 2018
Sales and Listings Statistics Houses Townhouses and Condos for December 2018
Here is a summary of the numbers:
Greater Vancouver: Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 1,094 – down from 1,633 in November 2018; down from 2,069 in December 2017 and down from 1,743 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 10,907 at month end, up from 7,540 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 10 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 4 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 75% in December 2018 compared to 106% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is down 2.7% (Detached homes down 7.8% and Apartments up 0.6%).
Vancouver Westside: Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 190 – down from 298 in November 2018; down from 315 in December 2017 and down from 324 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 1,947 at month end, up from 1,284 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 10 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 4 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 73% in December 2018 compared to 97% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is down 5.8% (Detached homes down 11.8% and Apartments down 2.9%).
Vancouver Eastside: Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 113 – down from 181 in November 2018; down from 239 in December 2017 and down from 183 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 1,075 at month end, up from 927 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 10 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 4 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 85% in December 2018 compared to 115% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is down 4.6% (Detached homes down 7.2% and Apartments down 1.4%).
North Vancouver: Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 99 – down from 139 in November 2018; down from 138 in December 2017 and down from 138 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 630 at month end, up from 393 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 6 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 2 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 125% in December 2018 compared to 197% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is down 3.7% (Detached homes down 8.2% and Apartments down 0.3%).
West Vancouver: Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 30 – the same amount in November 2018; down from 44 in December 2017 and down from 44 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 579 at month end, up from 356 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 19 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 8 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 47% in December 2018 compared to 80% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is down 12.2% (Detached homes down 13.5% and Apartments down 2.6%).
Richmond: Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 122 – down from 178 in November 2018; down from 287 in December 2017 and down from 235 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 1,597 at month end, up from 1,184 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 13 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 4 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 61% in December 2018 compared to 95% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is down 2.8% (Detached homes down 9.2% and Apartments up 2.5%).
Burnaby East: Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 17 – the same as November 2018; down from 28 in December 2017 and down from 20 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 115 at month end, up from 106 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 7 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 4 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 85% in December 2018 compared to 112% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is down 2.1% (Detached homes down 10.6% and Apartments up 1.9%).
Burnaby North Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 50 – down from 71 in November 2018; down from 99 in December 2017 and down from 85 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 463 at month end, up from 266 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 9 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 3 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 63% in December 2018 compared to 99% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is down 1.6% (Detached homes down 8.2% and Apartments up 2.6%).
Burnaby South: Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 51 – down from 79 in November 2018; down from 109 in December 2017 and down from 73 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 627 at month end, up from 370 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 12 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 3 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 50% in December 2018 compared to 96% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is down 1.6% (Detached homes down 6.6% and Apartments up 0.1%).
New Westminster: Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 58 – down from 87 in November 2018; down from 117 in December 2017 and down from 103 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 390 at month end, up from 187 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 7 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 2 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 126% in December 2018 compared to 123% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is up 4.2% (Detached homes down 8.7% and Apartments up 7.4%).
Coquitlam: Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 89 – down from 135 in November 2018; down from 162 in December 2017 and down from 128 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 786 at month end, up from 487 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 9 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 3 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 75% in December 2018 compared to 98% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is down 0.5% (Detached homes down 5.3% and Apartments up 3.2%).
Port Moody: Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 29 – down from 33 in November 2018; down from 38 in December 2017 and down from 41 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 169 at month end, up from 106 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 6 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 3 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 181% in December 2018 compared to 106% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is down 0.2% (Detached homes down 1.1% and Apartments down 0.9%).
Port Coquitlam: Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 51 – down from 67 in November 2018; down from 71 in December 2017 and down from 59 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 259 at month end, up from 135 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 5 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 2 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 128% in December 2018 compared to 109% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is down 0.7% (Detached homes down 4.9% and Apartments up 2.2%).
Ladner: Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 23 – up from 22 in November 2018; down from 26 in December 2017 and up from 21 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 143 at month end, up from 92 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 6 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 4 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 164% in December 2018 compared to 163% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is down 2.8% (Detached homes down 6.3% and Apartments up 5.8%).
Tsawwassen: Total Units Sold in December 2018 was 13 – down from 17 in November 2018; the same as December 2017 and down from 15 in December 2016. Total Active Listings were at 171 at month end, up from 141 at the end of December 2017, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 13 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 11 Months Supply at the end of 2017 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 100% in December 2018 compared to 100% in December 2017. Benchmark Price is down 4.4% (Detached homes down 7.0% and Apartments up 6.5%).