“Do or do not. There is no try” Yoda
“Life is ten percent what happens to you and ninety percent how you respond to it.” Lou Holtz
Happy New Year! All the best for a successful 2016 ahead!
Sales and Listings Stats Houses Townhouses Condos
Sales and Listings Stats All Residential December 2015
Attached are the end of December 2015 Sales and Listings Stats. And what a year it was! The true tale of the year statistically lies in Supply and Demand. Demand for real estate in Metro Vancouver was a pace not seen in 10 years and supply fell dramatically as less properties were listed and the strong demand bought up what was available. In Greater Vancouver there were 43,155 properties sold in 2015, the strongest year for sales on record, just eclipsing the previous high of 43,124 in 2005. With 33,693 properties sold in 2014, unit sales were up 28 per cent this year. Demand was consistent through the year while the number of properties listed declined as the year progressed. The result was a 39 per cent drop in Active Listings to start 2016 compared to the start of 2015. With 6,176 properties on market on market to start 2016, we are at record lows going back to the mid 80’s. Is it any wonder that we saw the price increases we did in 2015 with these kind of numbers? Most areas finished the year with 2 to 3 month’s supply of listings, with North Vancouver, Coquitlam and Tsawwassen finishing the year with 1 Month Supply of listings – meaning if there were no new listings, it would only take one month to completely sell out of all active listings!
While the detached market continued to lead price growth in 2015, the attached market experienced the strongest price growth in the last 7 to 8 years. Attached active listings are down 43% year over year compared to detached properties which were down 38%. Clearly the trend towards strata living is continuing to grow. For Greater Vancouver Detached Homes, the Benchmark Price is up 24.3% year over year, while Townhouses are up 13.6% and Apartments are up 14%.
What real factors impacted the property market this year? A review of some of the headlines shows that in January the Bank of Canada lowered the key interest rate – much to everyone’s surprise. This was repeated again in July with the government trying its best to avoid the “R” word – Recession. December saw the Bank of Canada hold the key interest rate at 0.5 per cent with the next announcement coming January 20, 2016 along with the government’s Monetary Policy Report. Most major banks see the rate remaining in check through 2016 and if the economy falters a further drop is not out of the question. Nationally we saw the price of oil dropping affecting markets in Alberta and Saskatchewan and with that sales levels falling in their real estate markets. The price of oil dropping significantly also had a major impact on Canada’s Economy. With stagnant rates and the drop in the price of oil, Canada’s Dollar fell against the U.S. Dollar. While this impact had nominal effects on U.S. buying trends in Metro Vancouver thus far, we’ll see what 2016 brings. Of course other types of foreign investment was very much the topic of pre and post-election discussions in Vancouver as affordability was on the lips of many concerned buyers. As of the start of 2016, government intervention much like accurate data on foreign purchasers remain hearsay. The bigger question remains, will city planners look at the supply side of the equation to tackle affordability.
So what might 2016 be like for the housing market in Metro Vancouver? One of the key factors which will affect the market is an economic fundamental – SUPPLY. Starting the year at the low levels we have and with demand remaining at an all-time high, without a significant increase in new listings the real estate will remain in Seller Market conditions. All indications are pointing to continued strength in the housing market but without increases in supply there could be a potential for continued pressure on prices and a stifling of buyers. Sellers want to sell and buyers want to buy, will the two come together in some kind of balance in 2016? Advantage Sellers to start! What can be said with certainty, Metro Vancouver has a finite amount of land available to develop. And what will be developed is multi-family homes. Single family homes will continue to decline in numbers – from 50 percent in 1991, to one third in 2011 and a projection of 10 per cent by 2040.
Here is a summary of the numbers:
Greater Vancouver: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 2,905 – down from 3,603 in November 2015; up from 2,173 in December 2014 and 1,990 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 39% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Months (Extreme Seller’s Market) compared to 5 Months Supply at the end of 2014 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 140% in December 2015 compared to 112% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 18.9% since January 2015.
Vancouver Westside: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 512 – down from 694 in November 2015; up from 415 in December 2014 and 393 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 42% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Months (Extreme Seller’s Market) compared to 4 Months Supply at the end of 2014 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 141% in December 2015 compared to 112% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 20.3% since January 2015.
Vancouver Eastside: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 264 – down from 333 in November 2015; down from 266 in December 2014 and up from 236 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 49% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Months (Extreme Seller’s Market) compared to 3 Months Supply at the end of 2014 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 138% in December 2015 compared to 119% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 22.1% since January 2015.
North Vancouver: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 210 – down from 274 in November 2015; up from 156 in December 2014 and 137 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 56% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 1 Month (Extreme Seller’s Market) compared to 4 Months Supply at the end of 2014 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 154% in December 2015 compared to 117% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 19.2% since January 2015.
West Vancouver: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 86 – down from 108 in November 2015; up from 66 in December 2014 and 75 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 21% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 4 Months (Seller’s Market) compared to 7 Months Supply at the end of 2014 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 110% in December 2015 compared to 94% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 28.7% since January 2015.
Richmond: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 424 – down from 501 in November 2015; up from 302 in December 2014 and 249 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 36% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Months (Seller’s Market) compared to 6 Months Supply at the end of 2014 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 110% in December 2015 compared to 94% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 19.8% since January 2015.
Burnaby East: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 35 – down from 49 in November 2015; up from 28 in December 2014 and 27 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 37% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Months (Extreme Seller’s Market) compared to 3 Months Supply at the end of 2014 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 206% in December 2015 compared to 122% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 17.3% since January 2015.
Burnaby North: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 149 – down from 155 in November 2015; up from 122 in December 201 and 85 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 41% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Months (Extreme Seller’s Market) compared to 4 Months Supply at the end of 2014 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 149% in December 2015 compared to 182% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 17.0% since January 2015.
Burnaby South: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 203 – down from 227 in November 2015; up from 116 in December 2014 and 111 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 40% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Months (Extreme Seller’s Market) compared to 5 Months Supply at the end of 2014 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 165% in December 2015 compared to 130% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 14.7% since January 2015.
New Westminster: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 103 – down from 161 in November 2015; up from 72 in December 2014 and 70 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 48% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Months (Extreme Seller’s Market) compared to 6 Months Supply at the end of 2014 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 178% in December 2015 compared to 78% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 14.8% since January 2015.
Coquitlam: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 243 – down from 268 in November 2015; up from 166 in December 2014 and 152 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 40% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 1 Month (Extreme Seller’s Market) compared to 4 Months Supply at the end of 2014 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 147% in December 2015 compared to 108% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 19.3% since January 2015.
Port Moody: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 51 – down from75 in November 2015; up from 42 in December 2014 and down from 55 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 44% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Months (Extreme Seller’s Market) compared to 4 Months Supply at the end of 2014 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 131% in December 2015 compared to 135% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 19.5% since January 2015.
Port Coquitlam: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 98 – down from 117 in November 2015; up from 68 in December 2014 and 77 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 58% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 1 Month (Extreme Seller’s Market) compared to 4 Months Supply at the end of 2014and Sales to Listings Ratio was 140% in December 2015 compared to 131% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 16.2% since January 2015.
Ladner: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 22 – down from 26 in November 2015; down from 28 in December 2014 and up from 17 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 52% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Months (Extreme Seller’s Market) compared to 3 Months Supply at the end of 2014 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 116% in December 2015 compared to 140% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 23.5% since January 2015.
Tsawwassen: Total Units Sold in December 2015 was 50 – down from 52 in November 2015; up from 27 in December 2014 and 20 in December 2013. Total Active Listings are down 64% year over year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 1 Months (Extreme Seller’s Market) compared to 5 Months Supply at the end of 2014 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 161% in December 2015 compared to 117% in December 2014. Benchmark Price is up 25.8% since January 2015.